The failure was not intelligence. It was response.

I have spent my career on one question: why capable firms lose their footing when the political ground shifts, and what allows others to turn the same turbulence into advantage. BP did not fail to anticipate that Russia carried political risk; everyone anticipated that. It lost more than $20 billion because exit had become unthinkable long before it became unavoidable. The failure was not intelligence. It was response.

That is why the political-risk work I do with boards through Rockbarra points inward as well as out: at how a leadership team will actually decide when the pressure is on.